Thursday, November 06, 2008

Recount Watch (UPDATED)

When votes are counted, why does it seem to me that Republican Victories turn in to Democrat Victories? Does someone have a bag of Franken ballots to throw in the pool?

The Minneapolis-St. Paul Star-Tribune - "(Norm) Coleman declared victory Wednesday morning, when his unofficial lead over (Al) Franken stood at 725 votes out of nearly 2.9 million cast, according to the secretary of state's tally. By the end of the day, as county officials from around the state forwarded adjusted figures to the state, that margin had shrunk to 477 votes."

In 2000, the vote count kept narrowing in favor of Gore. In Washington State, the 2004 recount tilted the race from Republican to Democrat. I know statisitcs well enough to know that random error doesn't always end up with the same sort of result.

Random error does not favor the Republican, and then in an error free recount (oxymoron) end up favoring the Democrat. Why do I have the nervous feeling that someone will find 500 Al Franken Ballots?

Machines are Republican of course, and when Dino Rossi won twice in machine counts to over Christine Gregoire. A loving unbiased error free "hand count" led to a Democrat victory. Of course Al Franken wants a "hand count." Or should I say a "sleight of hand" count?

Why is it that votes get "lost" by machines only on the Democrat side? Why do they mysteriously get "found" by people "hand counting each ballot?" Why did Rick Jore win a recount, and then get ballots disqualified so that he....lost?


"The latest unofficial results collected by the Minnesota Secretary of State's Office of Tuesday's vote now show Coleman with a 236-vote lead over Franken. That's down from 725 Wednesday morning."

First, 725 for Coleman, then 477, now it's 236. Recounts FLUCTUATE if done randomly. You count a sample and there are errors and the margin of victory is 725. Then it's 477. Ok, that I can buy, though I continue to have difficulty with the idea that recounts for major political office ALWAYS favor democrats. But still, 725 to 477, no problemo. But a 725 margin to a 477 margin then a 236 margin? Folks, THIS IS NOT RANDOM. It's not an error, it's INTELLIGENT. Someone is stuffing the ballot box between recounts. Since Franken GAINS a little under 300 votes each count, doesn't it make sense that the next recount will show 30 or 40 votes in Franken's favor? Why is the swing each time a positive number (for Franken) of a little over 240 votes? THIS IS SIMPLY NOT RANDOM.

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